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Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.82 - $116.68$91.94
Multi-Stage$93.89 - $102.50$98.11
Blended Fair Value$95.02
Current Price$123.75
Upside-23.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%3.70%4.144.184.104.013.623.443.183.163.002.90
YoY Growth---0.96%2.04%2.09%10.74%5.40%7.97%0.86%5.06%3.46%0.90%
Dividend Yield--3.39%4.35%4.25%3.59%3.75%4.25%3.57%4.07%3.66%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,993.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,022.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)971.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)998.60624.13374.48
Cash Retained (M)971.00971.00971.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-998.60-624.13-374.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.60346.88596.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
LTM Dividend per Share5.185.185.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.450.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$71.82$91.94$116.68
Upside / Downside-41.96%-25.71%-5.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,993.005,132.185,275.245,422.285,573.435,728.795,900.65
Payout Ratio80.55%82.44%84.33%86.22%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,022.004,231.084,448.704,675.154,910.785,155.915,458.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)3,841.143,878.883,916.62
Year 2 PV (M)3,666.493,738.893,811.99
Year 3 PV (M)3,498.033,602.143,708.30
Year 4 PV (M)3,335.703,468.733,605.69
Year 5 PV (M)3,179.443,338.723,504.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,358.3558,131.6261,014.94
Equity Value (M)72,879.1576,158.9779,561.86
Shares Outstanding (M)776.25776.25776.25
Fair Value$93.89$98.11$102.50
Upside / Downside-24.13%-20.72%-17.18%

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