DDM Analysis: 600372.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.91 - $11.79	$6.21
Multi-Stage	$2.74 - $2.98	$2.86
Blended Fair Value	$4.53
Current Price	$12.61
Upside	-64.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	58.41%	25.82%	0.18	0.18	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	2.12%	257.52%	24.93%	81.47%	20.53%	-16.91%	20.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.63%	1.48%	0.28%	0.21%	0.14%	0.14%	0.13%	0.12%	0.09%	0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	737.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	566.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	170.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	147.47	92.17	55.30
Cash Retained (M)	170.82	170.82	170.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-147.47	-92.17	-55.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.35	78.65	115.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,844.47	4,844.47	4,844.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	8.78%	8.78%	8.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.91	$6.21	$11.79
Upside / Downside	-68.98%	-50.75%	-6.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	737.34	785.27	836.31	890.67	948.56	1,010.22	1,040.53
Payout Ratio	76.83%	79.47%	82.10%	84.73%	87.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	566.52	624.02	686.61	754.69	828.73	909.20	962.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.78%	8.78%	8.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	568.25	573.64	579.02
Year 2 PV (M)	569.36	580.20	591.15
Year 3 PV (M)	569.88	586.24	602.91
Year 4 PV (M)	569.86	591.77	614.31
Year 5 PV (M)	569.31	596.81	625.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,419.87	10,923.15	11,445.70
Equity Value (M)	13,266.52	13,851.81	14,458.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,844.47	4,844.47	4,844.47
Fair Value	$2.74	$2.86	$2.98
Upside / Downside	-78.28%	-77.33%	-76.33%

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AVIC Airborne Systems Co. Ltd. Class A (600372.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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