Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AVIC Airborne Systems Co. Ltd. Class A (600372.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.91 - $11.79$6.21
Multi-Stage$2.74 - $2.98$2.86
Blended Fair Value$4.53
Current Price$12.61
Upside-64.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.41%25.82%0.180.180.050.040.020.020.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--2.12%257.52%24.93%81.47%20.53%-16.91%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.63%1.48%0.28%0.21%0.14%0.14%0.13%0.12%0.09%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.4792.1755.30
Cash Retained (M)170.82170.82170.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.47-92.17-55.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.3578.65115.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.91$6.21$11.79
Upside / Downside-68.98%-50.75%-6.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737.34785.27836.31890.67948.561,010.221,040.53
Payout Ratio76.83%79.47%82.10%84.73%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.52624.02686.61754.69828.73909.20962.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)568.25573.64579.02
Year 2 PV (M)569.36580.20591.15
Year 3 PV (M)569.88586.24602.91
Year 4 PV (M)569.86591.77614.31
Year 5 PV (M)569.31596.81625.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,419.8710,923.1511,445.70
Equity Value (M)13,266.5213,851.8114,458.45
Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
Fair Value$2.74$2.86$2.98
Upside / Downside-78.28%-77.33%-76.33%

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