Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AVIC Airborne Systems Co. Ltd. Class A (600372.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.23 - $30.27$18.24
Multi-Stage$3.73 - $4.07$3.90
Blended Fair Value$11.07
Current Price$12.61
Upside-12.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.41%25.82%0.180.180.050.040.020.020.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--2.12%257.52%24.93%81.47%20.53%-16.91%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.63%1.48%0.28%0.21%0.14%0.14%0.13%0.12%0.09%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.4792.1755.30
Cash Retained (M)170.82170.82170.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.47-92.17-55.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.3578.65115.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.23$18.24$30.27
Upside / Downside-42.69%44.63%140.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737.34785.27836.31890.67948.561,010.221,040.53
Payout Ratio76.83%79.47%82.10%84.73%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.52624.02686.61754.69828.73909.20962.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)576.23581.69587.15
Year 2 PV (M)585.46596.61607.87
Year 3 PV (M)594.23611.28628.67
Year 4 PV (M)602.54625.71649.55
Year 5 PV (M)610.42639.90670.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,106.1815,835.8116,593.37
Equity Value (M)18,075.0518,891.0119,737.12
Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
Fair Value$3.73$3.90$4.07
Upside / Downside-70.41%-69.08%-67.69%

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