Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd. (002172.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.30$0.27
Multi-Stage$0.89 - $0.99$0.94
Blended Fair Value$0.60
Current Price$4.06
Upside-85.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.07%-12.10%0.040.040.050.120.130.200.110.070.000.10
YoY Growth---5.53%-28.33%-56.17%-7.73%-34.44%92.01%51.70%0.00%-100.00%-21.70%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.19%1.46%3.24%3.67%6.46%2.11%1.27%0.00%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.405.253.15
Cash Retained (M)22.3622.3622.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.40-5.25-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9617.1119.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Fair Value$0.22$0.27$0.30
Upside / Downside-94.48%-93.47%-92.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.0038.3935.0932.0829.3226.8127.61
Payout Ratio46.77%55.41%64.06%72.71%81.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6421.2722.4823.3223.8624.1325.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Year 1 PV (M)19.9220.1420.36
Year 2 PV (M)19.7120.1520.59
Year 3 PV (M)19.1419.7920.44
Year 4 PV (M)18.3319.1620.01
Year 5 PV (M)17.3618.3419.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)697.06736.47777.64
Equity Value (M)791.52834.03878.41
Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
Fair Value$0.89$0.94$0.99
Upside / Downside-78.11%-76.94%-75.71%

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