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Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.73 - $124.74$71.59
Multi-Stage$31.52 - $34.46$32.96
Blended Fair Value$52.27
Current Price$22.60
Upside131.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.86%9.55%0.260.190.130.150.140.130.120.090.110.11
YoY Growth--38.12%47.88%-16.82%8.40%8.58%9.87%33.49%-20.52%3.56%3.11%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.62%0.54%0.54%0.79%1.21%0.87%0.55%0.75%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.754.222.53
Cash Retained (M)29.2729.2729.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.75-4.22-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.5225.0526.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.73$71.59$124.74
Upside / Downside106.75%216.76%451.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.7535.9438.2840.7643.4146.2447.62
Payout Ratio13.26%28.61%43.96%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.4810.2816.8324.1832.4141.6144.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.349.439.51
Year 2 PV (M)13.8814.1414.41
Year 3 PV (M)18.1118.6319.16
Year 4 PV (M)22.0422.8923.76
Year 5 PV (M)25.7026.9528.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)447.56469.17491.62
Equity Value (M)536.63561.21586.70
Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
Fair Value$31.52$32.96$34.46
Upside / Downside39.45%45.84%52.46%

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