Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd. (002172.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.30$0.26
Multi-Stage$0.79 - $0.88$0.84
Blended Fair Value$0.55
Current Price$4.06
Upside-86.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.07%-12.10%0.040.040.050.120.130.200.110.070.000.10
YoY Growth---5.53%-28.33%-56.17%-7.73%-34.44%92.01%51.70%0.00%-100.00%-21.70%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.19%1.46%3.24%3.67%6.46%2.11%1.27%0.00%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.405.253.15
Cash Retained (M)22.3622.3622.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.40-5.25-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9617.1119.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Fair Value$0.22$0.26$0.30
Upside / Downside-94.59%-93.61%-92.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.0038.3935.0932.0829.3226.8127.61
Payout Ratio46.77%55.41%64.06%72.71%81.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6421.2722.4823.3223.8624.1325.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Year 1 PV (M)19.8620.0820.30
Year 2 PV (M)19.5920.0320.47
Year 3 PV (M)18.9719.6120.26
Year 4 PV (M)18.1218.9319.77
Year 5 PV (M)17.1018.0719.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)613.91648.62684.88
Equity Value (M)707.55745.34784.76
Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
Fair Value$0.79$0.84$0.88
Upside / Downside-80.43%-79.39%-78.30%

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