Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $15.94 - $86.00 | $31.27 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.55 - $13.77 | $13.15 |
| Blended Fair Value | $22.21 | |
| Current Price | $1.28 | |
| Upside | 1,635.23% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 54.52% | 40.06% | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 258.86% | 104.76% | -74.74% | -6.16% | 405.66% | 0.59% | -41.77% | 135.03% | -11.62% | 171.10% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.90% | 2.10% | 1.25% | 6.32% | 5.44% | 1.76% | 1.98% | 3.27% | 0.38% | 0.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 88,104.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,976.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 83,128.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17,620.80 | 11,013.00 | 6,607.80 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 83,128.00 | 83,128.00 | 83,128.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17,620.80 | -11,013.00 | -6,607.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 65,507.20 | 72,115.00 | 76,520.20 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Fair Value | $15.94 | $31.27 | $86.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,145.56% | 2,342.92% | 6,618.36% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 88,104.00 | 92,504.96 | 97,125.75 | 101,977.36 | 107,071.32 | 112,419.73 | 115,792.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 5.65% | 22.52% | 39.39% | 56.26% | 73.13% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,976.00 | 20,830.54 | 38,256.59 | 57,371.59 | 78,300.80 | 101,177.75 | 107,107.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 19,412.34 | 19,599.01 | 19,785.67 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 33,224.70 | 33,866.74 | 34,514.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 46,433.25 | 47,785.65 | 49,164.06 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 59,057.59 | 61,362.12 | 63,733.44 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 71,116.76 | 74,602.38 | 78,223.36 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,292,721.81 | 2,405,094.36 | 2,521,830.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,521,966.45 | 2,642,310.25 | 2,767,251.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 |
| Fair Value | $12.55 | $13.15 | $13.77 |
| Upside / Downside | 880.73% | 927.53% | 976.12% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |