Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Hepalink Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (002399.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.57 - $6.09$4.66
Multi-Stage$5.62 - $6.18$5.89
Blended Fair Value$5.28
Current Price$11.96
Upside-55.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%-3.98%0.110.100.030.150.150.080.040.210.320.16
YoY Growth--8.98%185.71%-76.67%-1.96%80.00%122.22%-82.00%-33.33%94.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.15%0.25%1.02%0.89%0.41%0.14%1.25%1.53%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)420.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.0452.5331.52
Cash Retained (M)347.13347.13347.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.04-52.53-31.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.09294.60315.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$3.57$4.66$6.09
Upside / Downside-70.18%-61.03%-49.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)420.20426.94433.79440.75447.82455.00468.65
Payout Ratio17.39%31.91%46.43%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.08136.25201.43268.66338.00409.50433.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)126.00127.26128.51
Year 2 PV (M)172.28175.72179.19
Year 3 PV (M)212.50218.90225.43
Year 4 PV (M)247.25257.22267.50
Year 5 PV (M)277.02291.07305.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,212.227,577.877,958.19
Equity Value (M)8,247.278,648.049,064.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
Fair Value$5.62$5.89$6.18
Upside / Downside-53.00%-50.72%-48.35%

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