Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Hepalink Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (002399.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.80 - $4.36$3.52
Multi-Stage$3.82 - $4.20$4.01
Blended Fair Value$3.76
Current Price$11.96
Upside-68.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%-3.98%0.110.100.030.150.150.080.040.210.320.16
YoY Growth--8.98%185.71%-76.67%-1.96%80.00%122.22%-82.00%-33.33%94.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.15%0.25%1.02%0.89%0.41%0.14%1.25%1.53%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)420.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.0452.5331.52
Cash Retained (M)347.13347.13347.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.04-52.53-31.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.09294.60315.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$2.80$3.52$4.36
Upside / Downside-76.58%-70.55%-63.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)420.20426.94433.79440.75447.82455.00468.65
Payout Ratio17.39%31.91%46.43%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.08136.25201.43268.66338.00409.50433.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)123.96125.19126.42
Year 2 PV (M)166.73170.06173.42
Year 3 PV (M)202.32208.41214.63
Year 4 PV (M)231.58240.92250.55
Year 5 PV (M)255.25268.19281.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,632.464,867.325,111.60
Equity Value (M)5,612.305,880.106,158.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
Fair Value$3.82$4.01$4.20
Upside / Downside-68.02%-66.49%-64.91%

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