Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiangyang Changyuandonggu Industry Co., Ltd. (603950.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.73 - $203.83$190.88
Multi-Stage$103.36 - $114.22$108.68
Blended Fair Value$149.78
Current Price$36.86
Upside306.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.17%0.00%0.090.060.350.070.960.380.150.420.020.29
YoY Growth--49.33%-82.89%414.83%-92.96%153.50%156.64%-65.02%1,791.19%-92.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.35%2.39%0.60%6.19%2.33%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)349.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.8643.6726.20
Cash Retained (M)255.59255.59255.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.86-43.67-26.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.73211.93229.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.06317.06317.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate-1.03%-1.03%-1.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$88.73$190.88$203.83
Upside / Downside140.72%417.85%452.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)349.32345.83342.37338.95335.56332.20342.17
Payout Ratio26.83%39.47%52.10%64.73%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.73136.48178.37219.41259.61298.98316.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.03%-1.03%-1.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)136.50137.90139.29
Year 2 PV (M)178.43182.09185.79
Year 3 PV (M)219.52226.31233.23
Year 4 PV (M)259.78270.55281.64
Year 5 PV (M)299.23314.81331.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,676.6133,326.0835,043.56
Equity Value (M)32,770.0634,457.7336,214.55
Shares Outstanding (M)317.06317.06317.06
Fair Value$103.36$108.68$114.22
Upside / Downside180.41%194.85%209.88%

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