Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., Ltd. (601177.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.99 - $25.52$17.04
Multi-Stage$9.43 - $10.32$9.86
Blended Fair Value$13.45
Current Price$18.35
Upside-26.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.74%-2.26%0.130.170.110.120.120.020.170.200.170.16
YoY Growth---23.12%59.75%-11.53%3.86%482.75%-88.58%-13.90%15.44%7.19%-0.50%
Dividend Yield--0.73%2.00%1.03%1.46%1.46%0.26%1.22%2.59%1.49%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7932.3719.42
Cash Retained (M)234.34234.34234.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.79-32.37-19.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)182.54201.97214.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Fair Value$11.99$17.04$25.52
Upside / Downside-34.66%-7.12%39.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.96274.08290.09307.02324.95343.92354.24
Payout Ratio9.51%25.61%41.71%57.80%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.6370.19120.98177.47240.14309.53327.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)63.6064.2064.81
Year 2 PV (M)99.33101.24103.16
Year 3 PV (M)132.03135.85139.73
Year 4 PV (M)161.89168.15174.60
Year 5 PV (M)189.07198.26207.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,167.873,321.863,481.78
Equity Value (M)3,813.793,989.564,171.89
Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
Fair Value$9.43$9.86$10.32
Upside / Downside-48.61%-46.24%-43.79%

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