Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $190.33 - $295.61 | $239.02 |
| Multi-Stage | $450.44 - $495.41 | $472.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $355.76 | |
| Current Price | $340.00 | |
| Upside | 4.63% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.65% | 0.00% | 14.73 | 14.81 | 12.45 | 17.68 | 17.36 | 20.77 | 23.43 | 23.12 | 22.01 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.56% | 18.96% | -29.57% | 1.83% | -16.43% | -11.33% | 1.31% | 5.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.30% | 5.22% | 5.53% | 10.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 123,600.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 87,025.34 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 36,575.05 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 24,720.08 | 15,450.05 | 9,270.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 36,575.05 | 36,575.05 | 36,575.05 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -24,720.08 | -15,450.05 | -9,270.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 11,854.97 | 21,125.00 | 27,305.02 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.94 | 3.45 | 4.46 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 14.22 | 14.22 | 14.22 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.94 | 3.45 | 4.46 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 16.16 | 17.68 | 18.69 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $190.33 | $239.02 | $295.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.02% | -29.70% | -13.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 123,600.39 | 122,364.39 | 121,140.75 | 119,929.34 | 118,730.05 | 117,542.74 | 121,069.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.41% | 74.33% | 78.25% | 82.16% | 86.08% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 87,025.34 | 90,949.66 | 94,786.79 | 98,538.08 | 102,204.87 | 105,788.47 | 111,988.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 84,677.92 | 85,541.98 | 86,406.04 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 82,164.84 | 83,850.23 | 85,552.73 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 79,526.41 | 81,985.82 | 84,495.42 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 76,797.65 | 79,980.56 | 83,261.39 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 74,008.87 | 77,862.69 | 81,875.39 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,358,650.96 | 2,481,471.39 | 2,609,355.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,755,826.66 | 2,890,692.66 | 3,030,946.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 |
| Fair Value | $450.44 | $472.49 | $495.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 32.48% | 38.97% | 45.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |