Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $190.33 - $295.61 | $239.02 |
| Multi-Stage | $450.44 - $495.41 | $472.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $355.76 | |
| Current Price | $340.00 | |
| Upside | 4.63% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.65% | 0.00% | 14.73 | 14.81 | 12.45 | 17.68 | 17.36 | 20.77 | 23.43 | 23.12 | 22.01 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.56% | 18.96% | -29.57% | 1.83% | -16.43% | -11.33% | 1.31% | 5.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.30% | 5.22% | 5.53% | 10.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 123,600.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 87,025.34 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 36,575.05 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 24,720.08 | 15,450.05 | 9,270.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 36,575.05 | 36,575.05 | 36,575.05 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -24,720.08 | -15,450.05 | -9,270.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 11,854.97 | 21,125.00 | 27,305.02 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.94 | 3.45 | 4.46 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 14.22 | 14.22 | 14.22 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.94 | 3.45 | 4.46 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 16.16 | 17.68 | 18.69 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $190.33 | $239.02 | $295.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.02% | -29.70% | -13.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 123,600.39 | 122,364.39 | 121,140.75 | 119,929.34 | 118,730.05 | 117,542.74 | 121,069.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.41% | 74.33% | 78.25% | 82.16% | 86.08% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 87,025.34 | 90,949.66 | 94,786.79 | 98,538.08 | 102,204.87 | 105,788.47 | 111,988.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 84,677.92 | 85,541.98 | 86,406.04 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 82,164.84 | 83,850.23 | 85,552.73 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 79,526.41 | 81,985.82 | 84,495.42 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 76,797.65 | 79,980.56 | 83,261.39 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 74,008.87 | 77,862.69 | 81,875.39 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,358,650.96 | 2,481,471.39 | 2,609,355.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,755,826.66 | 2,890,692.66 | 3,030,946.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 | 6,118.01 |
| Fair Value | $450.44 | $472.49 | $495.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 32.48% | 38.97% | 45.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |