Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volgogradenergosbyt Public Joint-Stock Company (VGSB.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.74 - $44.94$38.26
Multi-Stage$45.86 - $50.44$48.10
Blended Fair Value$43.18
Current Price$10.00
Upside331.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,943.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,928.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)388.75242.97145.78
Cash Retained (M)1,928.111,928.111,928.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-388.75-242.97-145.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.361,685.141,782.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.254.49
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.74$38.26$44.94
Upside / Downside217.40%282.58%349.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,943.751,924.311,905.061,886.011,867.151,848.481,903.94
Payout Ratio0.80%18.64%36.48%54.32%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.63358.76695.021,024.511,347.351,663.631,761.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)322.85326.14329.44
Year 2 PV (M)562.85574.39586.06
Year 3 PV (M)746.64769.73793.29
Year 4 PV (M)883.64920.26958.01
Year 5 PV (M)981.861,032.991,086.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,848.6615,621.8616,426.94
Equity Value (M)18,346.4919,245.3820,179.96
Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
Fair Value$45.86$48.10$50.44
Upside / Downside358.55%381.02%404.38%

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