Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volgogradenergosbyt Public Joint-Stock Company (VGSB.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.87 - $57.61$47.82
Multi-Stage$69.26 - $76.31$72.71
Blended Fair Value$60.27
Current Price$10.00
Upside502.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,943.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,928.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)388.75242.97145.78
Cash Retained (M)1,928.111,928.111,928.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-388.75-242.97-145.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.361,685.141,782.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.254.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.87$47.82$57.61
Upside / Downside288.66%378.23%476.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,943.751,924.311,905.061,886.011,867.151,848.481,903.94
Payout Ratio0.80%18.64%36.48%54.32%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.63358.76695.021,024.511,347.351,663.631,761.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)329.44332.80336.16
Year 2 PV (M)586.06598.08610.22
Year 3 PV (M)793.29817.83842.86
Year 4 PV (M)958.01997.721,038.64
Year 5 PV (M)1,086.221,142.781,201.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,955.9625,203.4026,502.28
Equity Value (M)27,708.9829,092.6130,531.84
Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
Fair Value$69.26$72.71$76.31
Upside / Downside592.56%627.14%663.11%

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