Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Natural Gas Distribution Company (9516.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.03 - $23.34$18.88
Multi-Stage$34.49 - $37.99$36.21
Blended Fair Value$27.54
Current Price$44.40
Upside-37.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-7.79%0.00%0.500.500.500.501.000.750.500.500.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.19%0.94%0.41%5.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.601.000.60
Cash Retained (M)5.505.505.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.60-1.00-0.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.904.504.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.03$18.88$23.34
Upside / Downside-66.14%-57.49%-47.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.007.927.847.767.697.617.84
Payout Ratio31.24%42.99%54.75%66.50%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.503.414.295.166.016.857.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.173.203.24
Year 2 PV (M)3.723.803.87
Year 3 PV (M)4.174.304.43
Year 4 PV (M)4.524.714.90
Year 5 PV (M)4.795.045.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)152.51160.46168.73
Equity Value (M)172.88181.50190.46
Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
Fair Value$34.49$36.21$37.99
Upside / Downside-22.33%-18.46%-14.43%

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