DDM Analysis: 9516.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.03 - $23.34	$18.88
Multi-Stage	$34.49 - $37.99	$36.21
Blended Fair Value	$27.54
Current Price	$44.40
Upside	-37.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	-7.79%	0.00%	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	1.00	0.75	0.50	0.50	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-50.00%	33.33%	50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	1.19%	0.94%	0.41%	5.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.60	1.00	0.60
Cash Retained (M)	5.50	5.50	5.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.60	-1.00	-0.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.90	4.50	4.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5.01	5.01	5.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.78	0.90	0.98
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.78	0.90	0.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.28	1.40	1.48
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$15.03	$18.88	$23.34
Upside / Downside	-66.14%	-57.49%	-47.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8.00	7.92	7.84	7.76	7.69	7.61	7.84
Payout Ratio	31.24%	42.99%	54.75%	66.50%	78.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.50	3.41	4.29	5.16	6.01	6.85	7.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.17	3.20	3.24
Year 2 PV (M)	3.72	3.80	3.87
Year 3 PV (M)	4.17	4.30	4.43
Year 4 PV (M)	4.52	4.71	4.90
Year 5 PV (M)	4.79	5.04	5.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	152.51	160.46	168.73
Equity Value (M)	172.88	181.50	190.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	5.01	5.01	5.01
Fair Value	$34.49	$36.21	$37.99
Upside / Downside	-22.33%	-18.46%	-14.43%

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Natural Gas Distribution Company (9516.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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