Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Hailir Pesticides and Chemicals Group Co.,Ltd. (603639.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.35 - $49.97$24.89
Multi-Stage$9.77 - $10.69$10.22
Blended Fair Value$17.55
Current Price$14.62
Upside20.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.96%20.95%0.531.041.040.210.160.170.130.080.080.09
YoY Growth---48.67%-0.30%385.09%34.00%-4.69%28.25%72.43%-4.46%-7.77%8.42%
Dividend Yield--4.43%7.02%4.79%1.03%0.89%1.24%0.73%0.46%0.40%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)193.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)183.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.6824.1814.51
Cash Retained (M)183.50183.50183.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.68-24.18-14.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.82159.33169.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.29339.29339.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.35$24.89$49.97
Upside / Downside4.99%70.23%241.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)193.42205.99219.38233.64248.83265.00272.95
Payout Ratio5.13%22.10%39.08%56.05%73.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.9245.5385.73130.96181.71238.50252.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.5241.9142.30
Year 2 PV (M)71.2872.6474.01
Year 3 PV (M)99.30102.15105.05
Year 4 PV (M)125.64130.47135.44
Year 5 PV (M)150.37157.63165.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,825.172,961.633,103.31
Equity Value (M)3,313.273,466.423,625.28
Shares Outstanding (M)339.29339.29339.29
Fair Value$9.77$10.22$10.69
Upside / Downside-33.21%-30.12%-26.92%

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