DDM Analysis: 603639.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.35 - $49.97	$24.89
Multi-Stage	$9.77 - $10.69	$10.22
Blended Fair Value	$17.55
Current Price	$14.62
Upside	20.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.96%	20.95%	0.53	1.04	1.04	0.21	0.16	0.17	0.13	0.08	0.08	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-48.67%	-0.30%	385.09%	34.00%	-4.69%	28.25%	72.43%	-4.46%	-7.77%	8.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.43%	7.02%	4.79%	1.03%	0.89%	1.24%	0.73%	0.46%	0.40%	0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	193.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	183.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.68	24.18	14.51
Cash Retained (M)	183.50	183.50	183.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.68	-24.18	-14.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	144.82	159.33	169.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	339.29	339.29	339.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.47	0.50
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.47	0.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.46	0.50	0.53
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.35	$24.89	$49.97
Upside / Downside	4.99%	70.23%	241.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	193.42	205.99	219.38	233.64	248.83	265.00	272.95
Payout Ratio	5.13%	22.10%	39.08%	56.05%	73.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.92	45.53	85.73	130.96	181.71	238.50	252.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	41.52	41.91	42.30
Year 2 PV (M)	71.28	72.64	74.01
Year 3 PV (M)	99.30	102.15	105.05
Year 4 PV (M)	125.64	130.47	135.44
Year 5 PV (M)	150.37	157.63	165.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,825.17	2,961.63	3,103.31
Equity Value (M)	3,313.27	3,466.42	3,625.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	339.29	339.29	339.29
Fair Value	$9.77	$10.22	$10.69
Upside / Downside	-33.21%	-30.12%	-26.92%

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Hailir Pesticides and Chemicals Group Co.,Ltd. (603639.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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