Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd. (600684.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.11 - $0.14$0.12
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.58$0.55
Blended Fair Value$0.34
Current Price$6.32
Upside-94.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.43%-18.18%0.030.791.701.911.020.910.930.650.490.41
YoY Growth---95.78%-53.52%-10.98%86.19%12.25%-1.96%43.10%33.92%19.65%63.87%
Dividend Yield--0.98%26.39%47.16%39.57%35.94%29.34%17.56%10.61%7.30%6.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.994.372.62
Cash Retained (M)20.7220.7220.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.99-4.37-2.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7316.3518.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.09816.09816.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate-20.18%-19.18%-18.18%
Fair Value$0.11$0.12$0.14
Upside / Downside-98.30%-98.04%-97.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.9328.2322.8218.4414.9012.0412.40
Payout Ratio40.70%50.56%60.42%70.28%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2214.2713.7812.9611.9410.8411.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate-20.18%-19.18%-18.18%
Year 1 PV (M)13.3913.5613.73
Year 2 PV (M)12.1312.4412.75
Year 3 PV (M)10.7011.1111.53
Year 4 PV (M)9.259.7310.22
Year 5 PV (M)7.888.398.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)368.50392.17417.04
Equity Value (M)421.86447.39474.18
Shares Outstanding (M)816.09816.09816.09
Fair Value$0.52$0.55$0.58
Upside / Downside-91.82%-91.33%-90.81%

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