DDM Analysis: 600684.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.11 - $0.14	$0.12
Multi-Stage	$0.52 - $0.58	$0.55
Blended Fair Value	$0.34
Current Price	$6.32
Upside	-94.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-48.43%	-18.18%	0.03	0.79	1.70	1.91	1.02	0.91	0.93	0.65	0.49	0.41
YoY Growth	-	-	-95.78%	-53.52%	-10.98%	86.19%	12.25%	-1.96%	43.10%	33.92%	19.65%	63.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.98%	26.39%	47.16%	39.57%	35.94%	29.34%	17.56%	10.61%	7.30%	6.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	34.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.99	4.37	2.62
Cash Retained (M)	20.72	20.72	20.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.99	-4.37	-2.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.73	16.35	18.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	816.09	816.09	816.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%
Growth Rate	-20.18%	-19.18%	-18.18%
Fair Value	$0.11	$0.12	$0.14
Upside / Downside	-98.30%	-98.04%	-97.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	34.93	28.23	22.82	18.44	14.90	12.04	12.40
Payout Ratio	40.70%	50.56%	60.42%	70.28%	80.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14.22	14.27	13.78	12.96	11.94	10.84	11.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%
Growth Rate	-20.18%	-19.18%	-18.18%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.39	13.56	13.73
Year 2 PV (M)	12.13	12.44	12.75
Year 3 PV (M)	10.70	11.11	11.53
Year 4 PV (M)	9.25	9.73	10.22
Year 5 PV (M)	7.88	8.39	8.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	368.50	392.17	417.04
Equity Value (M)	421.86	447.39	474.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	816.09	816.09	816.09
Fair Value	$0.52	$0.55	$0.58
Upside / Downside	-91.82%	-91.33%	-90.81%

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Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd. (600684.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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