Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (002497.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.98 - $75.61$27.35
Multi-Stage$7.90 - $8.64$8.27
Blended Fair Value$17.81
Current Price$14.87
Upside19.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.69%-3.51%0.070.470.030.040.010.020.020.040.050.04
YoY Growth---84.37%1,457.29%-17.44%194.57%-25.11%-1.39%-60.00%-16.67%20.00%-60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%4.29%0.14%0.13%0.07%0.24%0.20%0.31%0.55%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)334.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3054.5632.74
Cash Retained (M)334.09334.09334.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.30-54.56-32.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.79279.53301.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.98$27.35$75.61
Upside / Downside-5.99%83.93%408.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.50464.87495.08527.26561.54598.04615.98
Payout Ratio23.46%36.77%50.08%63.38%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.41170.93247.92334.20430.65538.23569.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)157.08158.56160.05
Year 2 PV (M)209.37213.36217.39
Year 3 PV (M)259.37266.81274.40
Year 4 PV (M)307.14318.95331.10
Year 5 PV (M)352.76369.80387.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,787.308,163.438,553.95
Equity Value (M)9,073.029,490.929,924.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
Fair Value$7.90$8.27$8.64
Upside / Downside-46.85%-44.40%-41.86%

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