Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (002497.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.50 - $75.61$70.86
Multi-Stage$10.76 - $11.78$11.26
Blended Fair Value$41.06
Current Price$14.87
Upside176.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.69%-3.51%0.070.470.030.040.010.020.020.040.050.04
YoY Growth---84.37%1,457.29%-17.44%194.57%-25.11%-1.39%-60.00%-16.67%20.00%-60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%4.29%0.14%0.13%0.07%0.24%0.20%0.31%0.55%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)334.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3054.5632.74
Cash Retained (M)334.09334.09334.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.30-54.56-32.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.79279.53301.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.50$70.86$75.61
Upside / Downside98.42%376.54%408.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.50464.87495.08527.26561.54598.04615.98
Payout Ratio23.46%36.77%50.08%63.38%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.41170.93247.92334.20430.65538.23569.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)158.86160.36161.87
Year 2 PV (M)214.14218.22222.34
Year 3 PV (M)268.29275.99283.84
Year 4 PV (M)321.30333.66346.37
Year 5 PV (M)373.21391.23409.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,012.3311,544.2312,096.49
Equity Value (M)12,348.1212,923.6913,520.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
Fair Value$10.76$11.26$11.78
Upside / Downside-27.67%-24.30%-20.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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