DDM Analysis: 000733.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$44.72 - $138.24	$71.50
Multi-Stage	$29.03 - $31.74	$30.36
Blended Fair Value	$50.93
Current Price	$50.24
Upside	1.37%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	48.15%	29.57%	1.17	1.15	0.33	0.21	0.14	0.16	0.15	0.11	0.09	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	1.94%	251.79%	58.32%	43.06%	-12.14%	9.80%	38.31%	26.06%	11.53%	-12.49%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	2.10%	0.36%	0.18%	0.26%	0.88%	0.94%	0.80%	0.46%	0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	948.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	119.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	829.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	189.76	118.60	71.16
Cash Retained (M)	829.06	829.06	829.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-189.76	-118.60	-71.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	639.30	710.46	757.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	554.13	554.13	554.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.15	1.28	1.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.15	1.28	1.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.37	1.50	1.58
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$44.72	$71.50	$138.24
Upside / Downside	-10.99%	42.32%	175.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	948.82	1,010.50	1,076.18	1,146.13	1,220.63	1,299.97	1,338.97
Payout Ratio	12.62%	28.10%	43.57%	59.05%	74.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	119.76	283.93	468.93	676.78	909.67	1,169.97	1,238.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.73%	8.73%	8.73%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	258.67	261.12	263.58
Year 2 PV (M)	389.22	396.64	404.12
Year 3 PV (M)	511.78	526.47	541.44
Year 4 PV (M)	626.71	650.82	675.61
Year 5 PV (M)	734.36	769.83	806.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,563.27	14,218.39	14,898.57
Equity Value (M)	16,084.03	16,823.27	17,589.98
Shares Outstanding (M)	554.13	554.13	554.13
Fair Value	$29.03	$30.36	$31.74
Upside / Downside	-42.23%	-39.57%	-36.82%

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China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co., Ltd (000733.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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