Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co., Ltd (000733.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.72 - $138.24$71.50
Multi-Stage$29.03 - $31.74$30.36
Blended Fair Value$50.93
Current Price$50.24
Upside1.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.15%29.57%1.171.150.330.210.140.160.150.110.090.08
YoY Growth--1.94%251.79%58.32%43.06%-12.14%9.80%38.31%26.06%11.53%-12.49%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.10%0.36%0.18%0.26%0.88%0.94%0.80%0.46%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)948.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)829.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.76118.6071.16
Cash Retained (M)829.06829.06829.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.76-118.60-71.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)639.30710.46757.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)554.13554.13554.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.281.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.281.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.72$71.50$138.24
Upside / Downside-10.99%42.32%175.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)948.821,010.501,076.181,146.131,220.631,299.971,338.97
Payout Ratio12.62%28.10%43.57%59.05%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.76283.93468.93676.78909.671,169.971,238.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)258.67261.12263.58
Year 2 PV (M)389.22396.64404.12
Year 3 PV (M)511.78526.47541.44
Year 4 PV (M)626.71650.82675.61
Year 5 PV (M)734.36769.83806.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,563.2714,218.3914,898.57
Equity Value (M)16,084.0316,823.2717,589.98
Shares Outstanding (M)554.13554.13554.13
Fair Value$29.03$30.36$31.74
Upside / Downside-42.23%-39.57%-36.82%

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