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Definitive Analysis

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TPR Co., Ltd. (6463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40,699.64 - $47,990.22$44,955.69
Multi-Stage$28,056.98 - $30,922.67$29,461.88
Blended Fair Value$37,208.79
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside2,957.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.54%10.82%73.3747.3048.8643.3143.6048.7145.3044.3441.6745.88
YoY Growth--55.13%-3.20%12.82%-0.66%-10.51%7.53%2.17%6.40%-9.17%74.66%
Dividend Yield--7.53%3.76%5.77%7.21%5.90%7.27%4.77%3.44%2.30%4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,473.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)678.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,794.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,094.601,309.13785.48
Cash Retained (M)9,794.509,794.509,794.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,094.60-1,309.13-785.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,699.908,485.389,009.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
LTM Dividend per Share16.3116.3116.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend201.36220.23232.82
WACC / Discount Rate-1.51%-1.51%-1.51%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$40,699.64$44,955.69$47,990.22
Upside / Downside3,244.26%3,593.98%3,843.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,473.0010,689.1910,909.8411,135.0411,364.9011,599.4911,947.48
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)678.502,478.064,351.626,301.488,329.9810,439.5511,051.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.51%-1.51%-1.51%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)2,491.282,515.932,540.58
Year 2 PV (M)4,398.164,485.634,573.96
Year 3 PV (M)6,402.856,594.796,790.54
Year 4 PV (M)8,509.128,850.939,202.94
Year 5 PV (M)10,720.9311,261.9311,824.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,134,929.421,192,200.531,251,760.69
Equity Value (M)1,167,451.751,225,909.751,286,693.27
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$28,056.98$29,461.88$30,922.67
Upside / Downside2,205.42%2,320.86%2,440.89%

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