Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CRRC Corporation Limited (601766.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.16 - $6.11$5.10
Multi-Stage$5.69 - $6.25$5.96
Blended Fair Value$5.53
Current Price$7.47
Upside-25.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.53%7.46%0.240.240.180.180.150.150.210.260.180.18
YoY Growth---0.69%32.30%0.00%20.00%0.00%-26.37%-21.72%41.72%5.43%51.20%
Dividend Yield--3.37%3.49%2.96%3.36%2.35%2.30%2.22%2.61%1.81%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,106.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)732.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,374.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,021.361,888.351,133.01
Cash Retained (M)14,374.0614,374.0614,374.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,021.36-1,888.35-1,133.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,352.7012,485.7113,241.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,490.0728,490.0728,490.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Fair Value$4.16$5.10$6.11
Upside / Downside-44.30%-31.74%-18.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,106.8115,191.3615,276.3715,361.8715,447.8415,534.3016,000.33
Payout Ratio4.85%21.88%38.91%55.94%72.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)732.753,323.925,944.088,593.4611,272.3013,980.8714,800.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)2,999.613,029.733,059.86
Year 2 PV (M)4,840.734,938.465,037.17
Year 3 PV (M)6,315.496,507.716,703.79
Year 4 PV (M)7,475.927,780.848,094.98
Year 5 PV (M)8,367.568,796.329,242.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)132,009.87138,774.08145,812.77
Equity Value (M)162,009.18169,827.14177,951.05
Shares Outstanding (M)28,490.0728,490.0728,490.07
Fair Value$5.69$5.96$6.25
Upside / Downside-23.88%-20.20%-16.38%

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