Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

CRRC Corporation Limited (601766.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.20 - $8.13$6.55
Multi-Stage$8.40 - $9.24$8.81
Blended Fair Value$7.68
Current Price$7.47
Upside2.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.53%7.46%0.240.240.180.180.150.150.210.260.180.18
YoY Growth---0.69%32.30%0.00%20.00%0.00%-26.37%-21.72%41.72%5.43%51.20%
Dividend Yield--3.37%3.49%2.96%3.36%2.35%2.30%2.22%2.61%1.81%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,106.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)732.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,374.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,021.361,888.351,133.01
Cash Retained (M)14,374.0614,374.0614,374.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,021.36-1,888.35-1,133.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,352.7012,485.7113,241.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,490.0728,490.0728,490.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Fair Value$5.20$6.55$8.13
Upside / Downside-30.45%-12.38%8.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,106.8115,191.3615,276.3715,361.8715,447.8415,534.3016,000.33
Payout Ratio4.85%21.88%38.91%55.94%72.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)732.753,323.925,944.088,593.4611,272.3013,980.8714,800.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-0.44%0.56%1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)3,055.933,086.623,117.32
Year 2 PV (M)5,024.225,125.665,228.11
Year 3 PV (M)6,677.976,881.227,088.56
Year 4 PV (M)8,053.448,381.918,720.33
Year 5 PV (M)9,183.229,653.7710,143.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)207,367.53217,993.08229,049.80
Equity Value (M)239,362.31251,122.27263,347.53
Shares Outstanding (M)28,490.0728,490.0728,490.07
Fair Value$8.40$8.81$9.24
Upside / Downside12.47%18.00%23.74%

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