Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Top Energy Company Ltd.Shanxi (600780.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.47 - $10.78$8.37
Multi-Stage$6.51 - $7.14$6.82
Blended Fair Value$7.60
Current Price$5.68
Upside33.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.11%-2.43%0.190.010.030.130.130.150.190.230.140.28
YoY Growth--1,164.21%-47.53%-77.74%-0.61%-16.65%-19.81%-17.00%62.37%-49.00%15.95%
Dividend Yield--3.34%0.20%0.31%3.38%2.70%4.78%4.68%5.73%2.45%5.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)614.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)608.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.9976.8746.12
Cash Retained (M)608.34608.34608.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.99-76.87-46.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)485.35531.47562.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,146.331,146.331,146.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Fair Value$6.47$8.37$10.78
Upside / Downside13.95%47.40%89.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)614.93640.06666.22693.45721.79751.29773.83
Payout Ratio1.07%18.86%36.64%54.43%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.59120.70244.13377.44521.24676.16715.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Year 1 PV (M)108.75109.81110.86
Year 2 PV (M)198.18202.04205.94
Year 3 PV (M)276.06284.18292.45
Year 4 PV (M)343.50357.02370.94
Year 5 PV (M)401.48421.33441.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,139.766,443.386,758.91
Equity Value (M)7,467.727,817.768,181.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,146.331,146.331,146.33
Fair Value$6.51$6.82$7.14
Upside / Downside14.69%20.07%25.65%

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