Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Top Energy Company Ltd.Shanxi (600780.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.67 - $29.11$17.50
Multi-Stage$12.28 - $13.48$12.87
Blended Fair Value$15.19
Current Price$5.68
Upside167.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.11%-2.43%0.190.010.030.130.130.150.190.230.140.28
YoY Growth--1,164.21%-47.53%-77.74%-0.61%-16.65%-19.81%-17.00%62.37%-49.00%15.95%
Dividend Yield--3.34%0.20%0.31%3.38%2.70%4.78%4.68%5.73%2.45%5.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)614.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)608.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.9976.8746.12
Cash Retained (M)608.34608.34608.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.99-76.87-46.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)485.35531.47562.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,146.331,146.331,146.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Fair Value$11.67$17.50$29.11
Upside / Downside105.43%208.14%412.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)614.93640.06666.22693.45721.79751.29773.83
Payout Ratio1.07%18.86%36.64%54.43%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.59120.70244.13377.44521.24676.16715.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Year 1 PV (M)111.85112.93114.02
Year 2 PV (M)209.63213.72217.84
Year 3 PV (M)300.33309.16318.15
Year 4 PV (M)384.33399.46415.04
Year 5 PV (M)462.00484.84508.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,610.7213,234.3613,882.43
Equity Value (M)14,078.8614,754.4715,456.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,146.331,146.331,146.33
Fair Value$12.28$12.87$13.48
Upside / Downside116.23%126.60%137.38%

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