Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volgogradenergosbyt Public Joint-Stock Company (VGSB.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.12 - $59.97$49.55
Multi-Stage$74.34 - $81.94$78.06
Blended Fair Value$63.80
Current Price$10.00
Upside538.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,943.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,928.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)388.75242.97145.78
Cash Retained (M)1,928.111,928.111,928.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-388.75-242.97-145.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.361,685.141,782.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.254.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$40.12$49.55$59.97
Upside / Downside301.18%395.46%499.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,943.751,924.311,905.061,886.011,867.151,848.481,903.94
Payout Ratio0.80%18.64%36.48%54.32%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.63358.76695.021,024.511,347.351,663.631,761.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)330.37333.75337.12
Year 2 PV (M)589.40601.49613.70
Year 3 PV (M)800.09824.83850.08
Year 4 PV (M)968.971,009.121,050.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,101.771,159.141,218.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,953.4127,304.8628,712.04
Equity Value (M)29,744.0131,233.2032,782.34
Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
Fair Value$74.34$78.06$81.94
Upside / Downside643.42%680.64%719.36%

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