DDM Analysis: 601881.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$187.27 - $220.64	$206.77
Multi-Stage	$45.08 - $49.31	$47.16
Blended Fair Value	$126.96
Current Price	$17.15
Upside	640.31%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	36.20%	16.97%	0.39	0.28	0.34	0.23	0.15	0.08	0.11	0.14	0.29	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	39.28%	-18.58%	52.64%	52.30%	77.78%	-25.00%	-22.58%	-49.80%	159.54%	35.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.35%	2.31%	3.43%	2.27%	1.43%	0.88%	0.88%	1.39%	2.14%	1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,130.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11,924.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	206.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,426.17	1,516.35	909.81
Cash Retained (M)	206.07	206.07	206.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,426.17	-1,516.35	-909.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-2,220.09	-1,310.28	-703.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,934.40	10,934.40	10,934.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.12	-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.12	-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.89	0.97	1.03
WACC / Discount Rate	5.63%	5.63%	5.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$187.27	$206.77	$220.64
Upside / Downside	991.95%	1,105.64%	1,186.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,130.83	12,919.34	13,759.10	14,653.44	15,605.91	16,620.29	17,118.90
Payout Ratio	98.30%	96.64%	94.98%	93.32%	91.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11,924.76	12,485.38	13,068.49	13,674.66	14,304.42	14,958.26	15,834.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.63%	5.63%	5.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	11,708.82	11,819.80	11,930.79
Year 2 PV (M)	11,493.40	11,712.31	11,933.29
Year 3 PV (M)	11,278.49	11,602.25	11,932.15
Year 4 PV (M)	11,064.09	11,489.59	11,927.24
Year 5 PV (M)	10,850.22	11,374.29	11,918.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	436,569.40	457,655.87	479,549.36
Equity Value (M)	492,964.42	515,654.11	539,191.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,934.40	10,934.40	10,934.40
Fair Value	$45.08	$47.16	$49.31
Upside / Downside	162.88%	174.98%	187.53%

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China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (601881.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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