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China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (601881.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.52 - $220.64$206.77
Multi-Stage$30.77 - $33.60$32.16
Blended Fair Value$119.46
Current Price$17.15
Upside596.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.20%16.97%0.390.280.340.230.150.080.110.140.290.11
YoY Growth--39.28%-18.58%52.64%52.30%77.78%-25.00%-22.58%-49.80%159.54%35.23%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.31%3.43%2.27%1.43%0.88%0.88%1.39%2.14%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,130.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,924.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,426.171,516.35909.81
Cash Retained (M)206.07206.07206.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,426.17-1,516.35-909.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,220.09-1,310.28-703.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.52$206.77$220.64
Upside / Downside305.38%1,105.64%1,186.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,130.8312,919.3413,759.1014,653.4415,605.9116,620.2917,118.90
Payout Ratio98.30%96.64%94.98%93.32%91.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,924.7612,485.3813,068.4913,674.6614,304.4214,958.2615,834.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,575.5911,685.3111,795.03
Year 2 PV (M)11,233.3211,447.2811,663.26
Year 3 PV (M)10,897.8411,210.6811,529.44
Year 4 PV (M)10,569.0310,975.4911,393.56
Year 5 PV (M)10,246.7810,741.7111,255.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)281,983.05295,602.93309,744.09
Equity Value (M)336,505.61351,663.39367,380.95
Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
Fair Value$30.77$32.16$33.60
Upside / Downside79.45%87.53%95.91%

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