Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited (NTV.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.48 - $24.25$20.21
Multi-Stage$23.70 - $25.89$24.78
Blended Fair Value$22.49
Current Price$24.90
Upside-9.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%4.84%1.461.130.600.871.581.461.331.191.121.00
YoY Growth--29.20%88.33%-31.03%-44.94%8.22%9.77%11.76%6.25%12.00%9.89%
Dividend Yield--5.21%3.07%1.53%2.47%3.83%3.65%2.43%2.20%2.17%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.3141.4424.87
Cash Retained (M)112.35112.35112.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.31-41.44-24.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0470.9187.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Fair Value$16.48$20.21$24.25
Upside / Downside-33.83%-18.84%-2.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.55334.68337.84341.02344.24347.49357.92
Payout Ratio66.11%70.89%75.67%80.45%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.20237.26255.64274.34293.37312.74331.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Year 1 PV (M)213.55215.69217.82
Year 2 PV (M)207.10211.27215.48
Year 3 PV (M)200.05206.11212.30
Year 4 PV (M)192.55200.38208.44
Year 5 PV (M)184.76194.19204.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,794.102,936.713,085.08
Equity Value (M)3,792.123,964.354,143.12
Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
Fair Value$23.70$24.78$25.89
Upside / Downside-4.82%-0.49%3.99%

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