Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd. (300496.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.14 - $52.11$32.58
Multi-Stage$15.36 - $16.79$16.06
Blended Fair Value$24.32
Current Price$77.68
Upside-68.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.12%20.65%0.370.340.310.230.150.120.180.100.110.09
YoY Growth--9.68%7.91%38.62%52.54%27.48%-36.09%91.41%-14.58%29.65%51.24%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.64%0.29%0.23%0.12%0.22%0.52%0.26%0.33%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)484.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)457.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.9160.5736.34
Cash Retained (M)457.60457.60457.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.91-60.57-36.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)360.69397.03421.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)461.32461.32461.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.14$32.58$52.11
Upside / Downside-71.50%-58.06%-32.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)484.53516.03549.57585.29623.33663.85683.77
Payout Ratio5.56%22.45%39.33%56.22%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.93115.83216.17329.07455.73597.47632.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.78105.78106.77
Year 2 PV (M)176.91180.28183.68
Year 3 PV (M)243.61250.61257.73
Year 4 PV (M)305.21316.94329.02
Year 5 PV (M)361.97379.45397.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,891.096,175.636,471.06
Equity Value (M)7,083.567,408.687,745.86
Shares Outstanding (M)461.32461.32461.32
Fair Value$15.36$16.06$16.79
Upside / Downside-80.23%-79.33%-78.38%

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