Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

M.P. Evans Group PLC (MPE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.67 - $403.87$167.85
Multi-Stage$61.40 - $67.08$64.19
Blended Fair Value$116.02
Current Price$15.52
Upside647.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.20%19.46%0.610.530.540.390.230.230.240.380.180.10
YoY Growth--14.73%-1.09%38.84%69.57%-2.09%-2.84%-36.36%103.99%88.21%-4.65%
Dividend Yield--4.88%5.56%5.46%3.41%2.52%2.41%2.76%3.61%2.35%1.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.4821.5512.93
Cash Retained (M)105.50105.50105.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.48-21.55-12.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0283.9592.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.2753.2753.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.581.74
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.581.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.832.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.67$167.85$403.87
Upside / Downside529.29%981.49%2,502.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.41183.61195.55208.26221.79236.21243.30
Payout Ratio38.81%49.04%59.28%69.52%79.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.9090.05115.93144.79176.91212.59225.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)82.3783.1583.93
Year 2 PV (M)97.0098.85100.71
Year 3 PV (M)110.81113.99117.23
Year 4 PV (M)123.85128.61133.51
Year 5 PV (M)136.14142.71149.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,720.802,852.222,988.67
Equity Value (M)3,270.973,419.543,573.59
Shares Outstanding (M)53.2753.2753.27
Fair Value$61.40$64.19$67.08
Upside / Downside295.64%313.61%332.24%

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