Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.,ltd. (601001.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.92 - $61.66$37.29
Multi-Stage$22.69 - $24.88$23.76
Blended Fair Value$30.52
Current Price$13.76
Upside121.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%4.66%0.880.620.620.260.270.400.370.310.370.25
YoY Growth--41.71%0.38%135.13%-1.76%-32.70%8.19%19.31%-17.22%50.61%-55.67%
Dividend Yield--7.43%4.06%5.55%1.68%5.33%11.35%7.23%5.82%6.08%5.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,933.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,855.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.75241.72145.03
Cash Retained (M)1,855.331,855.331,855.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.75-241.72-145.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,468.581,613.611,710.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$24.92$37.29$61.66
Upside / Downside81.14%170.97%348.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,933.772,025.932,122.482,223.642,329.612,440.642,513.86
Payout Ratio4.06%21.24%38.43%55.62%72.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.43430.40815.751,236.841,696.222,196.582,325.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)396.24400.06403.87
Year 2 PV (M)691.38704.77718.28
Year 3 PV (M)965.06993.231,021.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,218.431,266.091,315.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,452.601,523.961,598.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,533.2535,180.5036,891.87
Equity Value (M)38,256.9640,068.6041,949.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
Fair Value$22.69$23.76$24.88
Upside / Downside64.90%72.71%80.81%

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