Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.,ltd. (601001.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.29 - $29.20$21.71
Multi-Stage$15.20 - $16.64$15.90
Blended Fair Value$18.81
Current Price$13.76
Upside36.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%4.66%0.880.620.620.260.270.400.370.310.370.25
YoY Growth--41.71%0.38%135.13%-1.76%-32.70%8.19%19.31%-17.22%50.61%-55.67%
Dividend Yield--7.43%4.06%5.55%1.68%5.33%11.35%7.23%5.82%6.08%5.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,933.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,855.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.75241.72145.03
Cash Retained (M)1,855.331,855.331,855.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.75-241.72-145.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,468.581,613.611,710.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$16.29$21.71$29.20
Upside / Downside18.42%57.77%112.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,933.772,025.932,122.482,223.642,329.612,440.642,513.86
Payout Ratio4.06%21.24%38.43%55.62%72.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.43430.40815.751,236.841,696.222,196.582,325.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)388.92392.67396.42
Year 2 PV (M)666.09678.99692.01
Year 3 PV (M)912.60939.24966.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,130.941,175.171,220.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,323.401,388.411,455.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,198.4522,239.7823,321.64
Equity Value (M)25,620.4026,814.2728,053.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
Fair Value$15.20$15.90$16.64
Upside / Downside10.43%15.58%20.92%

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