Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.,ltd. (601001.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.59 - $84.34$45.11
Multi-Stage$25.63 - $28.11$26.84
Blended Fair Value$35.98
Current Price$13.76
Upside161.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%4.66%0.880.620.620.260.270.400.370.310.370.25
YoY Growth--41.71%0.38%135.13%-1.76%-32.70%8.19%19.31%-17.22%50.61%-55.67%
Dividend Yield--7.43%4.06%5.55%1.68%5.33%11.35%7.23%5.82%6.08%5.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,933.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,855.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.75241.72145.03
Cash Retained (M)1,855.331,855.331,855.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.75-241.72-145.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,468.581,613.611,710.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$28.59$45.11$84.34
Upside / Downside107.76%227.87%512.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,933.772,025.932,122.482,223.642,329.612,440.642,513.86
Payout Ratio4.06%21.24%38.43%55.62%72.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.43430.40815.751,236.841,696.222,196.582,325.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)398.05401.88405.72
Year 2 PV (M)697.71711.22724.86
Year 3 PV (M)978.351,006.911,036.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,240.861,289.391,339.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,486.091,559.101,634.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,404.7540,291.3142,251.29
Equity Value (M)43,205.8145,259.8147,392.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.081,686.081,686.08
Fair Value$25.63$26.84$28.11
Upside / Downside86.23%95.08%104.27%

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