Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pakuan, Tbk (UANG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$431.44 - $615.56$521.86
Multi-Stage$644.46 - $709.16$676.18
Blended Fair Value$599.02
Current Price$3,460.00
Upside-82.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%8.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76,958.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)76,958.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,391.779,619.865,771.91
Cash Retained (M)76,958.8076,958.8076,958.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,391.77-9,619.86-5,771.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)61,567.0367,338.9471,186.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.001,210.001,210.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.8855.6558.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.8855.6558.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend50.8855.6558.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$431.44$521.86$615.56
Upside / Downside-87.53%-84.92%-82.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76,958.8676,189.2775,427.3774,673.1073,926.3773,187.1175,382.72
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0613,714.1127,153.8940,323.5053,227.0065,868.3969,729.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,391.2912,517.7312,644.17
Year 2 PV (M)22,168.1422,622.8623,082.20
Year 3 PV (M)29,744.3330,664.1931,602.83
Year 4 PV (M)35,475.3436,945.6338,461.15
Year 5 PV (M)39,666.1841,731.6943,882.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)640,349.02673,693.48708,412.76
Equity Value (M)779,794.30818,175.59858,085.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.001,210.001,210.00
Fair Value$644.46$676.18$709.16
Upside / Downside-81.37%-80.46%-79.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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