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Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.62 - $183.38$144.30
Multi-Stage$138.04 - $151.14$144.47
Blended Fair Value$144.38
Current Price$122.11
Upside18.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.83%5.08%3.192.952.752.802.582.652.772.512.141.92
YoY Growth--8.25%7.18%-1.63%8.24%-2.30%-4.40%10.30%17.02%11.90%-1.56%
Dividend Yield--2.36%2.52%2.71%3.21%2.87%3.50%2.94%1.95%1.78%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)659.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)211.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.8082.3849.43
Cash Retained (M)448.00448.00448.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.80-82.38-49.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)316.20365.63398.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.7865.7865.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.815.566.06
LTM Dividend per Share3.213.213.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.815.566.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.028.779.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$112.62$144.30$183.38
Upside / Downside-7.77%18.17%50.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)659.00677.67696.86716.60736.90757.78780.51
Payout Ratio32.02%43.61%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)211.00295.56384.74478.74577.76682.00721.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)268.32270.96273.59
Year 2 PV (M)317.10323.36329.68
Year 3 PV (M)358.21368.86379.73
Year 4 PV (M)392.45408.10424.21
Year 5 PV (M)420.57441.63463.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,322.697,689.378,070.59
Equity Value (M)9,079.359,502.289,941.32
Shares Outstanding (M)65.7865.7865.78
Fair Value$138.04$144.47$151.14
Upside / Downside13.04%18.31%23.77%

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