Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mandarin Hotel Public Company Limited (MANRIN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.70 - $22.72$18.42
Multi-Stage$19.99 - $21.96$20.96
Blended Fair Value$19.69
Current Price$22.80
Upside-13.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.440.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.315.203.12
Cash Retained (M)41.4141.4141.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.31-5.20-3.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1036.2238.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.9126.9126.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.351.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.351.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.39%1.39%2.39%
Fair Value$14.70$18.42$22.72
Upside / Downside-35.53%-19.21%-0.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.5742.1542.7343.3343.9344.5445.88
Payout Ratio0.37%18.30%36.22%54.15%72.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.157.7115.4823.4631.6640.0942.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.39%1.39%2.39%
Year 1 PV (M)7.027.097.16
Year 2 PV (M)12.8113.0713.33
Year 3 PV (M)17.6718.2018.74
Year 4 PV (M)21.6922.5723.47
Year 5 PV (M)24.9926.2627.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)453.59476.64500.61
Equity Value (M)537.77563.82590.89
Shares Outstanding (M)26.9126.9126.91
Fair Value$19.99$20.96$21.96
Upside / Downside-12.34%-8.09%-3.68%

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