DDM Analysis: MANRIN.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.70 - $22.72	$18.42
Multi-Stage	$19.99 - $21.96	$20.96
Blended Fair Value	$19.69
Current Price	$22.80
Upside	-13.65%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	41.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.31	5.20	3.12
Cash Retained (M)	41.41	41.41	41.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.31	-5.20	-3.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)	33.10	36.22	38.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	26.91	26.91	26.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.23	1.35	1.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.23	1.35	1.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.24	1.35	1.43
WACC / Discount Rate	8.83%	8.83%	8.83%
Growth Rate	0.39%	1.39%	2.39%
Fair Value	$14.70	$18.42	$22.72
Upside / Downside	-35.53%	-19.21%	-0.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.57	42.15	42.73	43.33	43.93	44.54	45.88
Payout Ratio	0.37%	18.30%	36.22%	54.15%	72.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.15	7.71	15.48	23.46	31.66	40.09	42.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.83%	8.83%	8.83%
Growth Rate	0.39%	1.39%	2.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.02	7.09	7.16
Year 2 PV (M)	12.81	13.07	13.33
Year 3 PV (M)	17.67	18.20	18.74
Year 4 PV (M)	21.69	22.57	23.47
Year 5 PV (M)	24.99	26.26	27.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	453.59	476.64	500.61
Equity Value (M)	537.77	563.82	590.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	26.91	26.91	26.91
Fair Value	$19.99	$20.96	$21.96
Upside / Downside	-12.34%	-8.09%	-3.68%

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Mandarin Hotel Public Company Limited (MANRIN.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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