Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Iveco Group N.V. (IVG.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.85 - $63.81$38.65
Multi-Stage$27.99 - $30.70$29.32
Blended Fair Value$33.98
Current Price$16.70
Upside103.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS146.50%0.00%0.340.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.25%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)322.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.4040.2524.15
Cash Retained (M)234.00234.00234.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.40-40.25-24.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)169.60193.75209.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.25268.25268.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$25.85$38.65$63.81
Upside / Downside54.81%131.42%282.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)322.00335.06348.64362.78377.49392.80404.58
Payout Ratio27.33%39.86%52.40%64.93%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.00133.57182.68235.56292.43353.52374.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)123.76124.96126.16
Year 2 PV (M)156.85159.91163.00
Year 3 PV (M)187.41192.92198.54
Year 4 PV (M)215.58224.07232.81
Year 5 PV (M)241.49253.44265.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,583.876,909.567,248.02
Equity Value (M)7,508.967,864.868,234.38
Shares Outstanding (M)268.25268.25268.25
Fair Value$27.99$29.32$30.70
Upside / Downside67.62%75.56%83.81%

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