DDM Analysis: IVG.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.85 - $63.81	$38.65
Multi-Stage	$27.99 - $30.70	$29.32
Blended Fair Value	$33.98
Current Price	$16.70
Upside	103.49%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	146.50%	0.00%	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.25%	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	322.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	88.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	234.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	64.40	40.25	24.15
Cash Retained (M)	234.00	234.00	234.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-64.40	-40.25	-24.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	169.60	193.75	209.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	268.25	268.25	268.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.72	0.78
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.72	0.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.96	1.05	1.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	3.06%	4.06%	5.06%
Fair Value	$25.85	$38.65	$63.81
Upside / Downside	54.81%	131.42%	282.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	322.00	335.06	348.64	362.78	377.49	392.80	404.58
Payout Ratio	27.33%	39.86%	52.40%	64.93%	77.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	88.00	133.57	182.68	235.56	292.43	353.52	374.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	3.06%	4.06%	5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	123.76	124.96	126.16
Year 2 PV (M)	156.85	159.91	163.00
Year 3 PV (M)	187.41	192.92	198.54
Year 4 PV (M)	215.58	224.07	232.81
Year 5 PV (M)	241.49	253.44	265.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,583.87	6,909.56	7,248.02
Equity Value (M)	7,508.96	7,864.86	8,234.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	268.25	268.25	268.25
Fair Value	$27.99	$29.32	$30.70
Upside / Downside	67.62%	75.56%	83.81%

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Iveco Group N.V. (IVG.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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