DDM Analysis: 688239.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$41.83 - $226.58	$81.75
Multi-Stage	$23.71 - $25.93	$24.80
Blended Fair Value	$53.27
Current Price	$43.99
Upside	21.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.34%	21.26%	0.35	0.44	0.33	0.10	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.16%	35.03%	212.88%	-5.50%	32.22%	79.59%	26.87%	-8.38%	-8.27%	-14.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.07%	1.67%	0.57%	0.25%	0.37%	0.28%	0.15%	0.00%	0.13%	0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	187.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	47.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	139.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.41	23.38	14.03
Cash Retained (M)	139.40	139.40	139.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.41	-23.38	-14.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	102.00	116.02	125.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	164.16	164.16	164.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.71	0.76
LTM Dividend per Share	0.29	0.29	0.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.71	0.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	7.80%	7.80%	7.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$41.83	$81.75	$226.58
Upside / Downside	-4.91%	85.83%	415.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	187.03	199.18	212.13	225.92	240.60	256.24	263.93
Payout Ratio	25.46%	38.37%	51.28%	64.19%	77.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	47.63	76.43	108.78	145.01	185.49	230.62	244.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.80%	7.80%	7.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	70.23	70.90	71.57
Year 2 PV (M)	91.86	93.61	95.37
Year 3 PV (M)	112.53	115.76	119.05
Year 4 PV (M)	132.27	137.36	142.59
Year 5 PV (M)	151.13	158.43	166.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,333.83	3,494.86	3,662.05
Equity Value (M)	3,891.85	4,070.91	4,256.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	164.16	164.16	164.16
Fair Value	$23.71	$24.80	$25.93
Upside / Downside	-46.11%	-43.63%	-41.05%

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Sector

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd (688239.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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