Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd (688239.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.83 - $226.58$81.75
Multi-Stage$23.71 - $25.93$24.80
Blended Fair Value$53.27
Current Price$43.99
Upside21.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.34%21.26%0.350.440.330.100.110.080.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth---20.16%35.03%212.88%-5.50%32.22%79.59%26.87%-8.38%-8.27%-14.81%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.67%0.57%0.25%0.37%0.28%0.15%0.00%0.13%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4123.3814.03
Cash Retained (M)139.40139.40139.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.41-23.38-14.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.00116.02125.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.83$81.75$226.58
Upside / Downside-4.91%85.83%415.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.03199.18212.13225.92240.60256.24263.93
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.19%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6376.43108.78145.01185.49230.62244.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.2370.9071.57
Year 2 PV (M)91.8693.6195.37
Year 3 PV (M)112.53115.76119.05
Year 4 PV (M)132.27137.36142.59
Year 5 PV (M)151.13158.43166.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,333.833,494.863,662.05
Equity Value (M)3,891.854,070.914,256.63
Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
Fair Value$23.71$24.80$25.93
Upside / Downside-46.11%-43.63%-41.05%

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