Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (603890.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.39 - $137.96$129.29
Multi-Stage$19.62 - $21.48$20.53
Blended Fair Value$74.91
Current Price$13.89
Upside439.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.41%1.96%0.060.170.160.230.170.150.090.020.080.06
YoY Growth---61.39%6.12%-31.90%38.44%12.14%60.78%430.21%-79.11%47.60%6.62%
Dividend Yield--0.53%1.67%1.64%2.31%1.25%1.59%1.20%0.14%0.67%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)221.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.2837.6722.60
Cash Retained (M)221.03221.03221.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.28-37.67-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.76183.36198.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)434.46434.46434.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.39$129.29$137.96
Upside / Downside284.37%830.79%893.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.38320.97341.83364.05387.72412.92425.31
Payout Ratio26.66%39.33%52.00%64.66%77.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.35126.23177.74235.41299.83371.63393.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)117.31118.42119.53
Year 2 PV (M)153.50156.42159.37
Year 3 PV (M)188.93194.35199.88
Year 4 PV (M)223.62232.22241.07
Year 5 PV (M)257.57270.02282.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,581.367,947.548,327.74
Equity Value (M)8,522.298,918.979,330.52
Shares Outstanding (M)434.46434.46434.46
Fair Value$19.62$20.53$21.48
Upside / Downside41.22%47.80%54.62%

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