Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd. (603601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $2.61$1.82
Multi-Stage$2.09 - $2.29$2.19
Blended Fair Value$2.00
Current Price$5.01
Upside-60.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.14%29.00%0.090.060.080.150.080.090.080.010.090.01
YoY Growth--51.56%-23.37%-47.64%86.37%-12.39%21.94%985.80%-92.10%505.03%103.19%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.73%1.51%2.31%1.01%1.22%1.45%0.13%1.34%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2310.146.08
Cash Retained (M)43.2643.2643.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.23-10.14-6.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.0333.1237.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$1.31$1.82$2.61
Upside / Downside-73.84%-63.70%-47.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.1383.0384.9786.9688.9991.0893.81
Payout Ratio46.68%55.34%64.01%72.67%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.8745.9554.3963.2072.3881.9786.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)42.8343.2543.67
Year 2 PV (M)47.2548.1949.13
Year 3 PV (M)51.1752.7054.26
Year 4 PV (M)54.6356.8259.07
Year 5 PV (M)57.6660.5663.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,883.171,977.942,076.48
Equity Value (M)2,136.702,239.452,346.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
Fair Value$2.09$2.19$2.29
Upside / Downside-58.34%-56.34%-54.26%

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